On the 30 th, the organization pushed to buy 6 shares, which was extremely underestimated.
Wuliangye
()-deepening reform, value first.
Value first, () quite a price is imperative. From 1218, 2023 to the present, a series of price-fixing combination punches such as reduction, price increase, goods control, and channel arrangement have gradually become clear: 1) The planned amount of dealer contracts in 2024 will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2023; 2) From February 5, 2024, the ex-factory price of Puwu increased by 50 yuan, from 969 yuan to 1019 yuan; 3) After the Spring Festival in 2024, the company suspended delivery, mainly to digest channel inventory; 4) Make efforts to organize channels and mobilize dealers to rectify low-priced goods in the market. Under this set of combination boxing, the market supply has shrunk obviously, the channel inventory is controlled at a relatively low level, and dealers generally have confidence and form strong support for the approval price. The upward trend of comprehensive goods acquisition cost may still have upward potential in the short term, and it is expected to straighten out the relationship between volume and price in the medium and long term and gradually get out of the dilemma of volume and price game.
Marketing reform has entered the deep water area, laying the foundation for price control. In the history of Wuliangye, relying on the big commercial system, it constantly attacked the city and gained the initial rapid growth, but at the same time it also left many disadvantages such as weak channel control, separation of production and marketing, brand dilution and so on. After 2017, we launched a second venture, carried out drastic reforms in the marketing system, and improved the marketing system construction through a series of measures such as flat organization, flat channels, terminal system construction, and digital marketing, which laid the foundation for the company to enter a stable and high-quality growth stage. Judging from the history of price increase, it is normal for Puwu to raise prices under the environment of upside-down price approval, and the trading means are becoming more accurate and steady. On the basis of continuous deepening of marketing reform, the price plate maintains an upward momentum, and it is expected to continue to witness Wuliangye enter a smoother positive cycle of quantity and price in the future.
The product system is constantly optimized, and there is still potential beyond the fifth year plan. Wuliangye has formed a product matrix of main brand "1+3" and series wine "4+4". We believe that Wuliangye’s collateral product strategy is becoming clearer and clearer, and it is expected to make up for the growth with relevant marketing measures: 1)1618 strives to become the first brand with a banquet at a price of 1,000 yuan, and low-grade Wuliangye conforms to the trend of low-grade, and both of them increase the fee and scan code rewards to enhance the channel thrust; 2) Brand promotion and consumer cultivation of classic Wuliangye will help enhance the brand value of Wuliangye; 3) Improve the product matrix, and introduce 45-degree and 68-degree products to make up for the differentiated demand; 4) Non-standard and Wenchuang wines further enrich the product system and accelerate the cultivation and construction of the aged wine market; 5) Series wines will continue to focus on the strategy of big single products, increase brand promotion and cultural marketing, and further promote the construction of classified and graded markets.
Investment suggestion: The company will maintain the double-digit revenue growth target in 2024, and inject a booster into the market in the environment of reducing the quantity of goods and controlling the short-term performance expectations. We believe that in addition to the "price first" in the General Five-Year Plan, the increase in quantity can still be achieved through multiple efforts of products and channels. With the deepening of marketing reform, the medium and long-term strength is expected to gradually form. Optimistic about the stability of the company’s short-term performance and the growth certainty under the optimization of the long-term volume-price relationship. At present, the company’s valuation is at a relatively low level in history, superimposed with the characteristics of high dividends and high dividend yield, and the allocation value is prominent. It is estimated that the company will realize a net profit of 337.2/377.9/42.13 billion yuan in 2024-2026, up by 11.6%/12.1%/11.5% year-on-year; The corresponding PE is 17.3/15.4/13.8 times. Maintain "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the repair of consumption scenes is less than expected; Food safety risks; The price increase was less than expected.
Poly development
Haitong Securities-Comments on the company’s quarterly report: The drop in carry-over affects profits, and the sales scale keeps leading the industry.
Carry-over and declining equity ratio affect profits. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 49.748 billion yuan, up+24.51% year-on-year; The net profit was 3.983 billion yuan, up +0.44% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 2.224 billion yuan, down -18.28% year-on-year. The main reason for the decline was the gross profit margin carried forward by the project and the decline in equity ratio. On the other hand, the company continued to pay close attention to the return of sales funds, achieving a sales return of 57.651 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a comprehensive return rate of 91.53%; The balance of monetary funds at the end of the period was 129.554 billion yuan. By the end of the first quarter of 2024, the company’s total assets were 1,424.356 billion yuan, which was -0.87% compared with the end of 2023. The net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies were 200.030 billion yuan, which was +0.75% compared with the end of 2023. The asset-liability ratio was 75.88%, down 0.66 percentage points from the end of 2023. The high base affects the year-on-year decline in sales, and the scale remains the industry leader. In the first quarter of 2024, the contracted amount of the company was 62.984 billion yuan, up -44.81% year-on-year, and the contracted area was 3,668,700 square meters, up -41.84% year-on-year. We think it was mainly influenced by the high base in the same period in 2023. According to the monthly sales list of top 100 real estate enterprises published by Kerui, the company’s full-caliber sales amount from January to March 2024 was 62.90 billion yuan, which continued to be the first in the industry; The sales amount of equity caliber is 47.80 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry.With the main tone of the continuous easing of real estate policies set by the two sessions and the Political Bureau meeting unchanged, restrictive policies such as purchase restriction and price restriction in first-tier cities are expected to be fully adjusted, and the overlapping real estate financing coordination mechanism and the "old-for-new" policy support the replacement and improvement of demand. We believe that industry sales are expected to pick up, and we will continue to be optimistic about the company’s sales scale and maintain its leading position in the industry. Maintain the strength of investment and focus 100% on the core 38 cities. In the first quarter of 2024, the company expanded four new real estate projects, with a new floor area ratio of 590,000 square meters and a total acquisition cost of 5 billion yuan, all located in 38 core cities; The newly started area is 2.83 million square meters, up+42.9% year-on-year; The completed area was 5.42 million square meters, up +5.0% year-on-year. By the end of the first quarter of 2024, the company had 635 projects under construction, with an area of 81.5 million square meters under construction and an area of 57.58 million square meters to be developed. Investment suggestion: maintain the "better than the market" rating. Considering that the company’s various businesses are solid and steady, actively promoting the repurchase of major shareholders and increasing the cash dividend ratio, which reflects shareholders’ confidence in the company’s future development and recognition of long-term investment value, we give the company an EPS of 1.07 yuan in 2024, 10-12 times PE valuation, corresponding to a market value range of 128-153.6 billion yuan and a reasonable value range of 10.69-12.83 yuan per share. Risk warning: the market repair is less than expected. Risk warning: the market repair is less than expected.
Zhongwei company
Changjiang securities ——2024Q1 Comments: The competitiveness of etching equipment is outstanding, and the development of thin film equipment has achieved results.
Event description
In Q1, 2024, the company realized operating income of 1.605 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of +31.23%, net profit attributable to the mother of 249 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of -9.53%, and net profit attributable to non-mother of 263 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of +15.40%.
Event review
The growth of etching equipment sales revenue drives the overall revenue growth. The company’s etching equipment has been continuously recognized by more customers at home and abroad, and the new shipment of high-end products aimed at the key etching process in advanced logic and memory device manufacturing has been significantly improved. In 2024Q1, the revenue of etching equipment was 1.335 billion yuan, up by about 64.05% year-on-year, and the revenue proportion of etching equipment increased from 66.55% in the same period of last year to 83.20% in this period. The MOCVD equipment was affected by the fluctuation of the terminal market. In 2024 Q1, the revenue of MOCVD equipment was about 38 million yuan, down by 77.28% year-on-year. Due to the fluctuation of capacity utilization rate of downstream customers of semiconductors, the income from spare parts and services in this period was about 232 million yuan, down by about 4.38% compared with the same period of last year.
Non-recurring profit and loss losses are mainly affected by changes in the value of stocks held. The non-recurring profit and loss in Q1 of 2024Q1 was RMB 14 million, which was about RMB 61 million lower than the profit of RMB 48 million in the same period of last year. The changes in non-recurring gains and losses are mainly as follows: (1) Due to the decline in the stock price in the secondary market in 2024Q1, the fair value of equity investment measured at fair value held by the company decreased by about RMB 41 million in the current period; (2) The government subsidy income included in non-recurring gains and losses in this period is RMB 14 million, which is about RMB 23 million lower than RMB 37 million in the same period of last year.
The increase in inventory is caused by the increase in orders, production and raw materials purchased by the company. In addition, the increase in production machines and delivery machines to customers also led to the increase in the part of goods issued in the inventory balance. The above inventory changes are expected to support the company’s long-term growth. In 2024Q1, the company’s etching equipment output increased significantly. By the end of 2024Q1, the balance of goods issued by the company was 1.923 billion yuan, an increase of 1.055 billion yuan compared with the opening balance of 868 million yuan.
Etching equipment continues to invest in research and development, and its competitiveness is outstanding in advanced chip manufacturing. The company has invested in the research and development and verification of key etching equipment in advanced chip manufacturing technology. At present, a number of equipment for the most critical etching process in logic and memory chip manufacturing have been verified on customer production lines. The Bevel etching equipment for wafer edge has been developed and will be verified by customers soon. The company’s TSV silicon via etching equipment is also increasingly used in advanced packaging and MEMS device production.
Through self-research and investment to form a platform layout, the development of thin film equipment has achieved remarkable results. At present, the company has a variety of equipment products entering the market, some of which have received repeated orders, and other key film deposition equipment research and development projects are progressing smoothly. The company’s tungsten series thin film deposition products can cover all tungsten applications of memory devices, and have completed the verification of CVD/HAR/ALDW tungsten equipment by many logic and storage customers, and obtained customer orders. Recently, the company has planned a variety of CVD and ALD equipment to increase the coverage of thin-film equipment and further expand the market.
It is estimated that in 2024-2026, the company will realize a net profit of RMB 20.17/26.01/3.282 billion, corresponding to PE41/32/25 times, and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk warning
1. Restrictive policies further aggravate risks;
2. The recovery of the prosperity of the semiconductor manufacturing end is less than the expected risk;
3. The verification progress of the company’s etching equipment and new process is not up to the expected risk.
BYD
Guojin Securities-Qin L/ Seal 06 DM-i released: the pricing greatly exceeded expectations, and the leading position was stable.
On the evening of May 28th, () held a press conference to officially release BYD DM-i5.0 technology and BYD Qin L/ Seal 06DM-i two new cars, and the pricing exceeded expectations:
1. DM-i5.0 technology: equipped with a 1.5L plug-in special engine, the power is 74kw, and the thermal efficiency is increased to 46.06%, and equipped with a plug-in special power blade battery, with an energy density of 115wh/kg and a charge of 10.08/15.87kwh respectively. NEDC consumes 2.9L/100km of electricity, CLTC consumes 10.7kwh/100km of electricity, accelerates 7.5s per 100 km, and has a battery life of 2,100 km with full oil and electricity, with the longest measured exceeding 2500km.
DM-i5.0 embodies the new trend of hybrid technology: compared with DM-i4.0, the new technology engine is further lightweight and the power is reduced, but the breakthrough of thermal efficiency is achieved by increasing the compression ratio; The peak torque decreases but the motor power increases; At the same time, the fuel tank capacity was increased from 48L to 65L.
2. New models: Among them, Qin L has a body size of 4830/1900/1495mm and a wheelbase of 2790mm, both higher than Qin PLUS;; Seal 06DM-i has a body size of 4770/1900/1660mm and a wheelbase of 2810mm. The pure battery life of the two new cars is 80-120km, and the pricing is 998-139800 yuan, which greatly exceeds expectations.
1. The company’s dominant position has become more and more stable. This new car pricing exceeded expectations, highlighting the company’s excellent cost control capabilities. At present, BYD has a strong performance in the low-end market. After the price reduction in February, the company’s pricing power was highlighted, and the sales volume in March/April exceeded 300,000 continuously.
We believe that the main competitors of the new car are Wuling Xingguang PHEV/ Changan Qiyuan A07/ Geely Yinhe L6, etc. Oil trucks are mainly Nissan Sylphy/Volkswagen LaVida/Toyota Corolla, etc. The new car pricing/size/space/intelligence is superior to the traditional oil car/tram competing products, which will become the next generation of explosions, further consolidating the company’s dominant position in the market segment.
2. The new car cycle leads the optimization of vehicle structure, and the gross profit is expected to continue to improve. Since February, Qin PLUS and other glory new cars have been listed. After the price reduction, the company has vacancies in some price bands. The listing of Qin L/ Seal 06DM-i has opened a new round of new car cycle in the low-end market, filling the original price range and leading the company to bicycle ASP and gross profit margin.
3. Looking forward to 24 years, the company will remain strong. 1) The company is in the new car cycle, and the appearance of Tengshi/Wangwang/Equation Leopard’s new car at Beijing Auto Show will drive the company to continuously hit the high-end market. With the improvement of scale effect & optimization of vehicle structure, the company’s net profit is expected to usher in an inflection point in Q2-Q3. 2) The company’s overseas performance is strong. In 24 years, it entered the Mexican market and continued to increase its volume in Thailand, Brazil, Israel and other countries. In 24 years, the export may exceed expectations. With the increase of vehicle supply & overseas factories put into production, it is expected to be mass-produced overseas in 26 years. At present, the electrification strength of overseas car companies is weak, and the company’s overseas market space is broad.
As a global leader in trams, BYD has experienced an upward product cycle in 24 years, accelerated overseas markets, and accumulated intelligence, with obvious cost advantages under the scale effect. Combined with the continuous promotion of the company’s new car cycle and sea strategy, we maintain the company’s forecast of net profit of 35.5.3/44.0.6/53.09 billion yuan in 24-26 years, corresponding to 18.1/14.6/12.1 times PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Competition in the industry has intensified, and the market demand is less than expected.
Dongfang electric cable
Guotai Junan-Full orders in hand, benefiting from the start of sea breeze.
Introduction to this report: the construction of sea breeze is gradually started, and the industry boom continues to rise. The company is full of orders in hand, optimistic about the company as a submarine cable leader, and continue to benefit from the high growth of sea breeze. Investment points: Maintain the "overweight" rating. Due to the delay of the sea breeze project in the wind power industry, the EPS forecast of the company in 2024-2025 was lowered to 1.93(-0.58) and 2.77(-0.52) yuan, and the EPS forecast in 2026 was increased by 3.40 yuan. At present, the sea breeze construction has been gradually started. Considering that the company has full orders in hand and obvious competitive advantages, it will give 22 times PE in 2025 and raise the company’s target price to 60.94(+6.72) yuan. Sea breeze construction started gradually, and the industry boom continued to rise. Recently, the public service platform of Jiangsu Province issued () the construction, construction and installation of wind turbines for Dafeng 850,000 kW offshore wind power project (Bid Ⅰ), the construction, construction and installation of wind turbines and the construction, construction and installation of substructure of offshore booster station (Bid Ⅱ), the construction, construction and installation of wind turbines (Bid Ⅲ). The start and completion time of this bidding plan are all ahead of schedule, which indicates that Jiangsu Haifeng construction has started gradually and the prosperity of Haifeng industry is expected to continue to rise. The order in hand is full, and the bid for the order is progressing smoothly. By April 25, 2024, the company had orders of 7.137 billion yuan, including 2.580 billion yuan for submarine cable system, 3.682 billion yuan for land cable system and 875 million yuan for ocean engineering.220kV and Shanghai cables and umbilicals account for nearly 30% of the total orders in hand. The company has further strengthened its strategic cooperation and market development in the fields of electric power construction, rail transit, offshore wind power, offshore oil and gas, etc., and won the bid for the bidding project of the main and distribution network material framework of China Southern Power Grid Corporation in 2023, with nearly 90 million cables for rail transit and 1.7 billion yuan for the land cable system. The EPC general contracting project of Huaneng Yuhuan No.2 offshore wind power project won the bid of about 328 million yuan, the 400MW offshore photovoltaic project of CGNPC Yantai Zhaoyuan was 89 million yuan, and the 1# offshore wind farm of Guodian Xiangshan was about 700 million yuan. Catalyst. Sea breeze project started and new production capacity was put into operation. Risk warning. Risks such as intensified competition in the industry and lower-level demand than expected.
Tuopu group
Open source securities-in-depth report of the company: high-quality customer structure, moving towards Tier0.5 platform supplier.
The company has been in the field of auto parts for 40 years, realizing the leap from single product leader to platform company.
"Increasing the value of bicycle accessories+expanding customers" is the core logic of the growth of platform companies. In terms of bicycle value, with the gradual mass production of thermal management, suspension, IBS, cockpit and other products, the company’s highest bicycle supporting value reached 30,000 yuan. On the customer side, the company and Tesla have steadily cooperated in products such as lightweight chassis, interior system and thermal management system, and expanded into the field of humanoid robot actuators. In addition, the company is deeply involved in the design and research of Geely and other automakers, and actively promotes the cooperation mode of Tier0.5. Based on the company’s annual report in 2023, combined with the judgment of the company’s production pace, we lowered the profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 and added the profit forecast for 2026. It is estimated that the net profit returned to the mother in 2024-2026 will be 3.030/39.54/4.924 billion yuan (the original value is 3.450/4.248 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS will be 2.61/respectively. The current share price is 21.8/16.7/13.4 times of PE in 2024-2026, respectively. Based on the fact that the company is a leading platform supplier, it has maintained close business cooperation with automakers such as Tesla and () and maintained a "buy" rating.
Deepen the Tier0.5 cooperation model, and "Tesla+new domestic forces" continue to inject vitality into development.
The company implemented the "big customer" strategy to realize the transformation of the largest customer from SAIC-GM to Geely and then to Tesla, and the customer matrix continued to expand. The company is the core supplier of Tesla’s interior decoration, thermal management, lightweight chassis and other fields. In 2022, about 40% of its revenue will be contributed by Tesla. In addition to Tesla, the company also provides corresponding supporting facilities for Geely, BYD, Huawei and other independent brands. The company has cooperated with Geely for more than 10 years, supporting the extremely explosive model series, and growing together with the OEM. In terms of new forces, the company provides auxiliary frames, thermal management, chassis lightweight and other parts for the M5/M7/M9 series vehicles, and the demand for intelligent replacement of parts opens.
Chassis, thermal management to build growth momentum, force wire control, air suspension, robots, open the growth ceiling.
The company has a profound technical accumulation in the materials and technology of lightweight chassis, and has raised funds for three times to expand production and increase production capacity. Relying on the electronic control and precision manufacturing ability formed on the basis of IBS, the company has developed a thermal management system horizontally. The first generation products are supplied to Tesla in bulk, and the second generation products have been developed. The company simultaneously lays out One-Box and Two-Box products on the brake-by-wire system. Under the trend of intelligent driving, air suspension has gradually become the standard of high-end models. The company plans to invest 300 million yuan in the intelligent driving R&D center project, mainly to develop the steering-by-wire system and air suspension system. In addition, the robot linear actuator and rotary actuator developed by the company have been sent to customers many times, and it is planned to invest 5 billion yuan to build a production base for robot core components in Ningbo.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation, fierce competition in the industry, and the risk that the Mexican factory is not progressing as expected.