Good shops ＂get rich＂ for a short time, but a dream will eventually break.

In February 2020, the good shop landed in A shares.

Xiao Cai, a newcomer to the stock market, was eager to buy this stock. However, after watching the daily limit, he gave up.

Old investors may be worried about missing good stocks, but Xiao Cai, who doesn’t understand the capital market, is afraid that he will become a real "leek" because he can never predict when he will suffer a big drop.

In the end, the good shop became the "Zhu Shazhi" in his mind. Now, this mole has finally fallen off.

"A dream is a dream"

After the listing of Liangpin Store, its share price soared from 11.9 yuan/share at the time of issuance, reaching the highest point of 87.2 yuan/share, and its market value increased nearly 8 times.

Gaochun Capital, which accompanied it to the listing, earned a lot of money. By the end of 2020, Gaochun Capital held 11.67% equity of Liangpin Store, making it the third largest shareholder of the latter.

Cao Wei, a partner of Gaoyan Capital, once talked to the media about the reasons for investing in good shops. He believes that,"Good shops have eaten through the whole value chain of snacks", and at the same time, they have integrated the advantages of both brands and snacks.

Bohu Finance’s understanding of this is that Gaoling Capital takes a fancy to good shops because of its rich zero food category and because of the scale effect of the brand through diversified channels.

Liangpin Shop has built an omni-channel sales model online and offline. It sells 1,000+SKUs through online self-operated and third-party e-commerce platforms, offline self-operated and franchised stores, which can meet the diversified needs of consumers.

The performance of different channels is also relatively balanced. According to the financial report of Liangpin Store, as of the first half of 2021, its online and offline revenue accounted for 51.58% and 48.42% respectively.

In addition, the good shop has built an efficient and unified management system, connecting many nodes such as product research and development, procurement and supplier management, logistics and distribution, store and platform operation in series, forming a relatively complete product management chain.

Reflected in revenue, good shops maintained a rapid growth for three years from 2017 to 2019, from 5.424 billion yuan to 6.378 billion yuan, and then to 7.715 billion yuan, maintaining a growth rate of nearly 20%. In 2020, its revenue also increased slightly, reaching 7.894 billion yuan.

However, the popularity of excellent shops in the secondary market only lasted for a short time.Since 2021, the share price of good shops has gradually declined, with the lowest point of only 31.3 yuan/share, and the market value has shrunk by 22.416 billion yuan compared with the peak period.

The good times are no longer there. After the lifting of the ban on restricted shares in good shops in 2021, Gaochun Capital began to reduce its shares in stages. As of January this year, its shares in Liangpin Store have been reduced to 7.51% of the total share capital.

From heavy positions to running away, the market is not without doubts. As we all know, Zhang Lei, the founder of Gaochun Capital, has been pursuing long-term doctrine and value investment.

With its deep involvement, the good shop has indeed improved qualitatively in many aspects such as store location system and supply chain system upgrade.

Is it because of the change of its investment layout or that it no longer recognizes the growth space of good shops?

Trust is at stake.

The biggest problem with good shops is that they have not built a moat for products.

The customized products it sells are jointly produced by brands and suppliers. Good shops analyze market trends according to the operation of each channel, carry out product planning and research and development, then determine suppliers according to procurement costs and product quality, and the suppliers will carry out production links, followed by quality inspection, warehousing and logistics distribution.

In the whole process, good shops will try to eat and send them for inspection before they are officially put into production until they get the quality inspection report. It also ensures the product quality through the combination of daily inspection, flight inspection and annual assessment.

However, most of the time, the quality of products is controlled by the suppliers themselves, which means that no matter how rigorous the assessment of good shops is, it is difficult to prevent manufacturers from "keeping secrets and keeping secrets".

For food, safety and hygiene are always the first factor. Once there is a problem, consumers’ trust in the brand will also collapse.

In March, 2021, a netizen in Weibo issued a document accusing the chicken sausage sub-package sold in the official flagship store of Liangpin Store of being damaged and containing maggots. After that, the brand customer service contacted the netizen to discuss compensation matters, from only refunding to compensating 1000 yuan, but they were always unwilling to apologize publicly.

Food safety has become a major event, and the process of crisis management has further exposed the brand’s perfunctory and insincere attitude towards consumers.

This kind of case is not uncommon. On the black cat complaint platform, there are more than 1,000 complaints about good shops, and most of them are quality problems.

For good shops, the follow-up treatment is a more headache. For suppliers who have made mistakes, if a good shop chooses to give them another chance, it must consider the acceptance of consumers; Can the taste of the same product be exactly the same if you choose another one in the supplier’s library?

Another problem is that the non-customized products directly purchased by good shops do not actually use good shops as the only sales channel.

In the little red book, there are some notes with "1688 snacks on behalf of the factory, essential for drama!" "I knew I could save a lot, but I knew it too late!" Waiting for the title to clear up, it was praised by thousands of people.

Their content is about the sharing of good shops and foundries. Some of the products purchased by the good shop use brand packaging, but the food information also indicates the contact information of the manufacturer’s name and website.

Wit surfers found factories and shops in 1688, Pinduoduo and other channels, and got the same money at less than 50% discount.

It’s not a big deal to lose some customers. After all, there are more than 2,000 stores in the good shop, which can embrace a steady stream of new customers. However, with the popularity of "1688 homologous goods", there are bound to be more and more consumers who think that good shops are not worth its "high-end" price.

On the whole, although good shops have established a relatively perfect operation mode, "branded" products will never gain 100% trust and support from consumers.

Where is the road ahead?

In the past two years, the channel of heavy positions in good shops has begun to show signs of weakness in the profit return of brands.

In the first three quarters of 2021, the income of good shops reached 6.569 billion yuan, an increase of 18.78% compared with the same period in 2020; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 244 million yuan, an increase of 13.05%.

The gap between these two ratios is mainly reflected in the increase in operating costs in sales and management. Among them, the sales expenses of good shops were 1.252 billion yuan, an increase of 88.43 million yuan year-on-year; Management expenses increased by 93.63 million yuan.

These expenses are mainly composed of rent, personnel salary, transportation and storage expenses and promotion expenses. In other words, good shops spend more on channel construction.

In the first three quarters of 2021, there were a net increase of 69 stores in good shops, including 401 newly opened stores and 332 closed stores.

At the same time, the brand has increased the investment of social e-commerce, and cooperated with many talents such as Simba to distribute products; Start self-broadcast accounts of brands such as "Good Shop Soup Boss".

Combined with its financial data, it is not difficult to see that the various operations of good shops have brought about the expansion of revenue scale, but they have not heard the "echo" in profits.

Faced with this situation, where should a good shop look for a new turning point?

In 2020, good shops began to lay out subdivided tracks, and launched children’s snack brand "Good Food Fairy" and healthy meal replacement brand "Good Food Flying".

However, judging from the semi-annual report of Liangpin Store in 2021, this differentiated route has not brought obvious results to the company. During the reporting period, the sales of snack fairy was 180 million yuan, accounting for 4% of the total revenue; The flying of good products was 94.63 million yuan, accounting for a lower proportion.

In order to achieve the achievement of "high-end snack brand", good shops have also increased their investment in research and development, from 24.3757 million yuan in 2019 to 33.71 million yuan in 2020, and the first three quarters of 2021 have also increased compared with the same period.

In the eyes of many consumers, the snacks in good shops are really good, but there is really no saying which product is so unique that it can make the brand succeed. This is the side effect of "big and complete".

Compared with its peers, the three squirrels are both OEM models, but they have the signboard of nuts; Weilong has spicy strips, qiaqia has melon seeds and tasteless food, and Zhou Heiya also has Zhou Heiya.

The snack food market is huge and scattered. In recent years, many cutting-edge brands catering to consumers’ individual needs have been born, such as Li Ziqi and Wang Xiaolu. Their SKUs are not many, but they have made their own signs with the characteristics of "specialization" and "refinement".

When these new brands take away all the attention, good shops can only be like an old man guarding the newsstand with a big horn, waiting for consumers to hear it. How long does he have to wait?

Content source: Bohu Finance