Everbright Futures： Vegetable oil belt collapses, pay attention to the support below.

Recently, the import prospect of rapeseed in Canada may improve, and the supply of vegetable oil is worried about the expected decline. On Tuesday, the price of vegetable oil retreated before part of the increase, and the downward trend continued on Wednesday, driving the oil sector to fall collectively. Palm oil and soybean oil both fell more than 4% in intraday trading.

From a macro point of view, after Trump won the election, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, international commodities generally fell, and the rise of oil and fat trees in the forest attracted financial attention. With the palm oil price breaking through the 10,000-yuan mark, thanks to the fear of heights, today’s bulls have obviously reduced their positions, and they are temporarily treated as technical adjustments. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the sustainability of long-term lightening and whether there are short-term funds entering the market. Fundamentally speaking, at present, horse palm oil has entered the seasonal production reduction season, and the quotation of palm oil in the producing area is still relatively firm. The domestic palm oil import cost has exceeded 11,000 yuan, the cost support is still strong, and the probability of a big drop is low. However, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, and the current supply is loose. If Canadian rapeseed is successfully imported to Hong Kong in the future, the supply of rapeseed oil is likely to be sufficient at the time of contract delivery. Based on this, the strong and weak differentiation between oils and fats may continue in the short term, and soybean oil and vegetable oil may weaken, and palm oil will still be treated as strong after the correction and stabilization.