Brokers look forward to A-share investment in 2025： optimistic expectations become a consensus, and multiple tracks are ＂focused＂

　　Our reporter Zhou Shangxuan trainee reporter Yu Hong

　　As the end of the year approaches, the capital market begins to focus on the investment layout in 2025. Major securities firms have released their annual investment strategies for 2025, in order to deeply analyze and predict the potential trends and investment opportunities in the A-share market next year for investors.

　　In the annual strategy reports of major securities firms, the core views are numerous and varied, but the optimistic expectations for the A-share market in 2025 have become a consensus. For example, CITIC Securities takes "standing on the starting line" as the theme, CICC puts forward that "it has crossed the mountain", Huatai Securities emphasizes "domestic demand is the shield and manufacturing is the spear", CITIC Jiantou advocates "concentrating on innovation", Everbright Securities looks forward to "the policy is moving, and the bull market is on the way", while open source securities thinks that "the bull market has entered the second stage". On the whole, brokers generally believe that the A-share market will usher in a new round of profit upward cycle in 2025, and the market trend is improving.

　　Standing at a new starting point in the upward direction

　　Looking forward to 2025, all brokers are optimistic about the trend of A-shares in terms of macro level, policy side and valuation level.

　　Standing at the starting point of the new cycle, the research team of CITIC Securities said that looking forward to 2025, A-shares are standing at the starting line of the annual "marathon market", and the stabilization of housing prices in core cities and the rebound of social financing growth will become the starting gun. The domestic credit cycle, macro prices and A-share earnings will all usher in a new starting point of the upward cycle, and the investment and financing ecology, investor ecology and product ecology of A-shares will also stand at a new starting point; ETF will become an important configuration tool, and excellent growth, domestic consumption, mergers and acquisitions will become three important tracks.

　　Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Jiantou, is also optimistic about the capital market trend in 2025. He said: "A shares are expected to continue to strengthen, long-term funds will enter the market in an orderly manner, and the policy of steady growth will be fully opened. A shares and Hong Kong stocks are still attractive to domestic and foreign investors. "

　　"In 2025, the growth rate of A-share earnings will be restored to more than 10%. The continuous support of policies and the inflow of funds brought by the money-making effect are expected to further enhance the market valuation, and the performance of A-share index is still worth looking forward to." Zhang Yusheng, chief analyst of Everbright Securities Strategy, predicted.

　　According to Li Lifeng, deputy director of Huaxi Securities Research Institute and chief analyst of strategy, the core driving force for the introduction of a series of incremental policies in this round lies in "financial activity and economic activity". In addition, there is still a lot of room for the downward trend of interest rates, which will help to improve the valuation of A shares. The subsequent stabilization of real estate will help A-share companies improve their profits. In 2025, A-shares will perform a round of "new quality cattle" market. It is suggested to grasp relevant investment opportunities and be optimistic about themes such as brokerage, AI+, low-altitude economy and humanoid robots.

　　Generally optimistic about opportunities in areas such as mergers and acquisitions.

　　For the coming year of 2025, how do investors grasp the investment style? What areas have layout opportunities? Brokerage analysts are generally optimistic about the growth style, while the configuration strategy is optimistic about mergers and acquisitions, domestic consumption and other tracks.

　　From the perspective of investment style, Wang Yi, chief strategist of Huatai Securities Research Institute, said: "Under the benchmark situation, monetary easing is expected to increase in the first quarter of next year, and the micro-liquidity of the market is active, which is conducive to the performance of small-cap stocks. The dumbbell style of’ small-cap+dividend’ is expected to prevail. In the second half of 2025, with the stabilization of the inventory cycle, the environment of large-cap stocks has improved, and the style may switch to the growth of the broader market. "

　　"It is expected that the market style will swing between balance and growth in 2025." Zhang Yusheng said that it is recommended to pay attention to two main lines: profit repair and high-risk preference varieties. The main line of profit repair focuses on the direction of domestic demand, such as food and beverage, medicine and biology, and social services. The main line of high-risk preference varieties focuses on high-beta industries (medicine, basic chemicals, nonferrous metals, etc.), high-profit expected industries (TMT, military industry, etc.) and theme investments (policy-supported themes, such as mergers and acquisitions, market value management; Science and technology topics, such as AI industrial chain and self-controllable).

　　In terms of configuration strategy, Li Qiusuo, chief analyst of domestic strategy of CICC Research Department, said: "Track research and boom investment are expected to gradually return. It is suggested to pay attention to four main lines. First, the economic growth, the growth industries whose fundamentals are expected to usher in a turning point, or the fields that are supported by policies and catalyzed by AI industry trends, including lithium batteries, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, etc. The second is resilient external demand, focusing on areas with relatively small potential impact and strong external demand resilience, such as power grids, commercial vehicles, household appliances, etc., as well as globally priced resource products. Third, the new dividend, combined with cash flow and dividend yield, pays attention to high dividend companies and pan-consumer fields such as food and beverage. The fourth is policy support, focusing on the impact of policies such as mergers and acquisitions and capital market reforms on related fields. "

　　Judging from the three tracks that CITIC Securities’ research team suggested to pay attention to, one is the excellent growth, focusing on the autonomous and controllable main lines that are expected to be strengthened, such as the core supply chain and the "stuck neck" link represented by advanced semiconductor processes, equipment and materials; Pay attention to the investment opportunities for industrial upgrading brought about by the development of new quality productivity, such as AI terminals, smart cars and commercial aerospace. Second, domestic consumption. It is suggested that the allocation strategy in the consumption sector should be gradually advanced from both offensive and defensive to flexible varieties. It is suggested that the consumer Internet, dairy products, mass catering and other sectors with both offensive and defensive should be mainly allocated at present, and catering supply chains, alcohol and other industries that are expected to show flexibility should be gradually added. Third, mergers and acquisitions, focusing on the intra-industry mergers and acquisitions oriented to industry consolidation, becoming bigger and stronger, such as electronics, medical devices, auto parts and other fields; At the same time, it pays attention to cross-industry mergers and acquisitions oriented to developing new quality productivity and industrial upgrading.